Disclaimer: we’re not here to tell you what any given player is worth. This guide is intended to give you some pointers on how to think about valuing a player.
Given that this is a career market, you’re betting on a player’s future career earnings in the eligible competitions. The basic idea is to pay less for a player than the amount of dividends they will win over the course of their career (but you will have the option to cash out your bet before he retires).
It’s logical that a 35-year-old striker may only cost 20p, as it is possible they’ll retire soon and therefore don’t have many more opportunities to earn dividends. At the other end of the spectrum are the likes of Mason Greenwood, who could very well be at Manchester United for his entire career (tier 1 dividends, likely European competitions as well as international games for England) is priced significantly higher.
A player’s value is how much they earn in dividends from now until they retire – we don’t know right now how much that will be, so we have to try and make some assumptions to have a reasonable guess.
How much can I expect a player to make over the course of their career?
This is a very broad question, and there will be a vast number of variables at play: age, potential, possible transfers and so on. Essentially you want to determine how many times a player will win dividends, and how big the dividend wins might be.
- Check the player’s score and dividend data for the last three seasons. You’ll see here the dividends they would’ve won in the past and this can form a basis for how they may perform going forward. They may have switched clubs, so it’s worth thinking about how their performances might vary and how often they’ll play for their new team.
- Younger players, with a decade or more of potential dividend wins will of course be more expensive. They may not have much data to go off, though – starlets like Greenwood and Phil Foden have shown a lot of promise in their short careers, but there will be risk attached to buying young stars at high prices. Think how much Freddy Adu, Alex Pato or Bojan Krkic might have been at some stage!
- A major risk factor is a player’s potential transfer. If a player is playing in the Premier League (tier 1), their dividend potential is twice what it would be playing in the Bundesliga (tier 2), for example. Players transferring from European leagues to the PL will see prices climb higher, while players leaving the Premier League will instantly see their dividend earning potential nearly halved. It’s worth thinking about this when assessing a player’s value.
- What about injury prone players? We all know Sergio Aguero is one of the best strikers – if not the best – in the Premier League, but how many games does he actually play each season? That’s a bit of a rhetorical question, but he’s averaging less than 24 PL starts per season over the last three years. Because he’s injury prone, he has fewer opportunities to win dividends than, say, Mo Salah, who has averaged nearly 35 starts per season in the same period.
- Speaking of Aguero, it’s worth thinking about rotation policies. He plays under Pep Guardiola who is notorious for heavily rotating his team. Rotation policies can impact dividend payouts drastically. Remember, the scoring table is exactly the same as on the matchday markets, so ‘impact subs’ will struggle to hit the dividend threshold if they’re missing out on the 25 points starting bonus!
Putting it all together
Once you’ve considered all these points, you can project forward how much you think a player is going to win in dividends each year. Assuming a retirement age – we’d use around 33 to be on the safe side – we can work out how many years a player likely has left to earn dividends and multiply that by their yearly dividend output to calculate a value.
Strictly speaking, the dividends further out into the future should be discounted (assigned a proportion of their absolute value), using some slightly complex maths. This accounts for a couple of things, but principally the fact that the dividend streams are a bit uncertain.
Adding the discounted future dividends up gives an estimate of ‘intrinsic value’. This is a phrase that has been adopted by player betting platforms from financial markets, and simply means what the asset is worth in respect of the money you receive from owning the player. In Career Markets, this is the total of the dividends over the course of the player’s career.
Stand by for more discussion on this topic!
There are so many opportunities to make money in the Career Markets and this is just one way of looking at things. You’ll find your own ways of making money in the Career Market, but hopefully this can offer a starting point for newer users!
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