Trading Journal: 29th October 2020

With so much football on at the moment it’s difficult to know where to look, and the temptation to overtrade is huge. We’ll focus here on a couple of games that we gave our full attention to – and in most cases that paid off, fortunately!

Premier League: Southampton 2-0 Everton

Everton have been on fire but a year to the day from the infamous 9-0 gubbing at the hands of Leicester, Southampton were able to topple the league leaders. Southampton’s form has turned dramatically since that defeat, and they should always be taken seriously on SportStack.

Everton went into the game missing Richarlison to suspension and Seamus Coleman to injury, with James Rodriguez a late inclusion having not trained during the week. This set the scene for a short on Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 45p. This seemed a reasonable time to bet on his purple patch ending, with Bednarek and Vestergaard forming a strong partnership for Southampton. It was a nervy trade to begin with, but it never really looked in doubt as the Saints scored two in the first half and had another disallowed, and DCL struggled to ever get into the game. The icing on the cake was a stoppage time yellow card, leaving him on a payout of just 16p. There was little management to do on this one, with Everton struggling to mount any momentum.

Another trade that we both took on was a short on James at 47p. Given the trade on DCL, there was considerable risk here, but we were expecting him to be subbed after 60-70 minutes. That didn’t happen with Everton chasing the game, and in fact he had (according to Opta) a fairly productive second half, although some of the allocations to him were a little suspect in our view. He faded in the final minutes to end on a payout of 41p.

Dave: I decided to hold on for full time on James – I couldn’t see Everton scoring so I felt that the DCL trade that was comfortably in the money gave me license to take a little risk on Rodriguez and it paid off.

Jay: With all three Everton subs done and them building some momentum, I decided to trade out for a small loss. Annoyingly that was only a couple of minutes before Lucas Digne got his red card and Everton ran out of steam.

Champions League: Dortmund 2-0 Zenit

Both teams went into this one needing a win, but Zenit posed little threat. Dortmund players were priced fairly high and looked like they would largely disappoint until a Dortmund penalty in the final 15 minutes and a second goal to round it off late on.

We both took a short on Giovanni Reyna at around 54p before kick-off. He’s been in great form for Dortmund but he seemed the most likely candidate of the front four to be subbed if things weren’t going smoothly for the German side, so that seemed a particularly high price to hit. During the first half he looked like making a good go of it, as he racked up points for passes, fouls won, dribbles and ball recoveries, to arrive at half-time on 37p. This was testing as his price nudged higher, but we both held on. In the second half Sancho took charge and Reyna’s involvement dwindled, and he was finally substituted in the 84th minute on a 36p payout, making for a 17p profit.

Dave: As discussed on the podcast, I took a long position on Jadon Sancho at 53p. His first half was frustrating, as every positive contribution was negated by an unsuccessful dribble; he had EIGHT of them in the opening 45 minutes. This was somewhat a sign of what was to come in the second half, though, as he dominated the ball for Dortmund as they looked to break Zenit down. He took his payout from 25p to 36p in the first 30 minutes of the second half, but posed little goal-threat. With his sell price at 42p, I decided to cash out for an 11p loss.

When Dortmund won a penalty a couple of minutes later, he was handed the ball and he tucked it away. Although that was a little frustrating, there’s not much I could have done there – Haland is typically Dortmund’s penalty taker, so I hadn’t expected Sancho to get given a chance like that. Not a trade I am too concerned about all in all!

It was a successful week all-in-all, but of course these weren’t our only trades. Particularly on Champions League evenings the temptation is to have a trade in every game, but that can be difficult to manage. Giving yourself a chance by trading only one or two games at once can be the difference between making and losing money!

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