19/20 Trading Review: Jay

The Champions League final brought down the curtain on the 2019/2020 season, after SportStack launched at the end of November 2019, we’ve been live for 9 months, but we’ve only had 6 months worth of trading. In that time, personally, I’ve gone from a £400 deposit, to a -£500 net deposit, with £1,358 sat in my account on SportStack, but it definitely hasn’t been plain sailing or easy, in this blog I’m going to go over some of the trades & the thought process behind them, along with things that I’ve learnt.

Key Trades – Good, good but maybe don’t do again, bad & really awful

Possibly the all time highest ROI trade

This one actually happened quite early on, Liverpool v Brighton, Alisson got himself sent off in the 76th min, Adrian makes his way onto the pitch, and his first action… Error leading to goal, so he was on -2 before you could even trade on him. With a 1p buy, it was a no brainer, so I picked up 140 of him as quickly as I could.

He went on to make 2 saves, claimed a cross, smothered the ball along with a few passes, which meant he paid out 13p.

So a massive ROI gain of 1,200%, which may or may not be beaten, as it would be incredibly hard to top that, you’d be looking for the same situation.

Committing a sin – This isn’t something I’d recommend doing at all.

During the New Year period, I went away to Poland, but actually went long on a few players before leaving the UK, without making a note of who I’d bought. Thankfully, one of these trades was Danny Ings against Spurs, for an average of 41.25p.

As you can see he did quite well in the end, finishing on 74p after scoring in the 17th minute.

The problem for me was that I had no idea who I’d traded, and no idea how they performed, with absolutely no control over the trade.

A poor one that I took a lot from

Trading is all about learning, you learn next to nothing from your winners, but you’ll learn a hell of a lot from your losing trades, this was certainly the case with this player in particular.

Spurs played host to Chelsea in December 2019, and I took a long position on Dele Ali at an average of 46.25p, when when you look back on it now, is a crazy price. He did have 3 out of 4 games prior to that where he’d performed incredibly well, 98p against Bournemouth, 60p against Man U (without Bruno, so they weren’t great at the time) & 54p against Burnley. However, Chelsea were a different kettle of fish at that time.

He paid out a poor 28p, which included him being booked, getting himself tackled & the 2 goals conceded.

Thankfully, I did trade out at 35p, but it was still an 11p loss per share, which equates to nearly 25%.

The key lesson here, is to not get suckered in by form. Take each game & each individual on a match by match basis.. Just because someone paid out 98p against Bournemouth, does not mean they’ll do well at home to Chelsea.

The Sucker-punch

This, was quite possibly the worst trade I’ve made on SportStack, hopefully it’ll be the worst one ever, and nothing will ever come anywhere near as close.

Phil Foden, against Burnley. If you know, you know. In a game where his general involvement was so incredibly poor, he managed to absolutely rinse me.
Listeners of SportStack Weekly Analysis will know that I have a tendency to double down on short positions when a player scores, due to them essentially becoming inflated in my eyes.

There are many examples, where this works, Thomas Muller against Barca is one of them cutting a 30p per share loss into a 15p per share loss in 15 minutes, as I had learnt from this Phil Foden catastrophe.

The worst thing about this game, was that he honestly had such little involvement, a base score of 21p is poor by anyone’s standards. (Great if you’re planning on shorting however)

I shorted the additional 200 around the 58th minute mark, in anticipation of the Pep rotation policy, which was absolutely the worst time to do it, 5 minutes after shorting, he scores again.

As a whole, I’d likely short Foden again due to his poor base & very poor involvement currently, however, would I double down & more, if he scores?
Maybe, with a view to trade out 10-15 mins later to mitigate losses, not let it run the way I did.

5 Key Learning points

There’s been a number of learning points over the 6 month trading period we’ve had on SportStack, but I’m going to run through some of the best ones personally.

  1. Taking a step back. Learning when to take a step back is essential, if you’ve had a few bad trades, maybe take a week off, or reduce the number of shares you’re trading until you’re confident again. In episode 18 with @tradingbychris we discussed how to deal with losing streaks.
  2. Log, log, log & review! Logging and reviewing your trades will undoubtedly help you. If you’re reading this, and you don’t know how to put together a spreadsheet, or you’re a little lazy (You’re not the only one!) we’ve got you covered. You can download our template sheet here
  3. Learn to take emotions out of it. Again, if you’ve listened to our podcast, I’m suspect of doing the complete opposite of this, however, it really isn’t a good way to trade. Some of my biggest losing trades have been down to emotion, or wanting a player to do well. (Maybe because I’ve bought him on FM for a few years, or he’s my captain on FPL) Just because you want a player to do well or poorly, does not mean they will.
  4. Understand the SportStack scoring table. You may be reading this, thinking that you do understand it, and if you do that’s great! (Bear in mind, there’ll be some changes for the 20/21 season, and we will cover those changes in a YouTube video) If you don’t and you find yourself questioning why x player didn’t get a chance created payout, then you need to go back & understand the scoring table (Hint, chances created isn’t currently on SportStack)
  5. Start small & build yourself up. It’s easy to get lost in the excitement of SportStack, its new, innovative & can be incredibly profitable. But that doesn’t mean you should jump in with a huge deposit. Deposit what you’re comfortable with losing, no more. learn the ropes, speak to community members & if you start to feel more confident after a few weeks, then you can deposit more.

I’m not at all here to tell you how to trade or to tip players. I’m also by no means the best SportStack trader, (I think that spot is reserved for someone on the Slack community) however I’m more than willing to share my experiences, and hopefully help readers/ listeners to improve their trading techniques.

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