The Numbers: Gameweek 31+

With the games coming thick and fast and the weather hotting up, it’s no surprise that games are being played at a slower pace and managers are mostly taking advantage of the five permitted substitutions. With that, base scores continue to sit a little lower than usual this week, but there are still plenty of talking points.

If you haven’t already, check out our bonus podcast from 23rd June, discussing potential scoring table changes and more importantly how to deal with losses.

Nick Pope – total payout 62p; base payout 37p

There weren’t many noteworthy goalkeeping performances this week – Alex McCarthy made a good run at this starting spot with his clanger against Arsenal – but Nick Pope fully deserves his place here. Burnley are in no real danger of going down, but after a pasting at Man City last week and with a few significant injuries, their season was at risk of petering out in a pretty dull way. Pope was assured between the sticks as Burnley beat Watford 1-0 at Turf Moor. Interestingly, he racked up a fairly strong base payout whilst only making three saves, as he took 4p from passes completed, 14p from high claims and another 2p from punches.

Lucas Digne – total payout 62p; 1 assist; base payout 27p

There was also little competition for the left-back berth, but Everton came away from Carrow Road with a win built on a strong defensive display, and Lucas Digne assisted the only goal of the game. Digne delivered the ball onto Michael Keane’s head for the winner, and created a couple of other goalscoring opportunities from corners. Beyond this, he had 6p for tackles won, 7p for ball recoveries, 12p for CBIs and another 7p for passes made.

Michael Keane – total payout 80p; base payout 40p; 1 goal

Everton’s centre-back will be the rock at the heart of this defence, having amassed an 80p payout on a strong 40p base. He converted a Lucas Digne corner for his goal, and earned 22p for CBIs. Like Digne, he did well on passes made, earning 8p. It was an assured performance from Keane who has yet to really find his feet in an Everton kit, although it will be good to see him manage a similar performance against a more testing opposition. After all, Norwich were fielding something of a second-string lineup.

Jack Stephens – total payout 7p; base payout -8p

It wouldn’t be an AlphaStack team of the week without a clowning centre-back. Jack Stephens takes the honours this week, having brought down Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang late on for a red card during Arsenal’s visit to Southampton. To rub salt in the wound, Arsenal scored in the seconds after the resulting free-kick was taken. In fairness to Stephens, up to that point he’d simply had a quiet game, his only negative action prior to the red card being the goal conceded, which he wasn’t at fault for. Nonetheless, the 22p swing from the foul, red card and result goal is enough to make or ruin a trader’s day!

Joel Ward – total payout 43p; base payout 38p

There’s little doubt that Trent Alexander-Arnold produced the most impressive moment of any of the right-backs on show at Anfield on Wednesday with his free kick for the opening goal, but otherwise Palace were able to keep him quiet. Joel Ward on the opposite side of the pitch stepped up to the mark for Palace, earning a total payout of 43p – which is good, given the scoreline – and a base of 38p. He mustered 8p from tackles won and a monstrous 24p from CBIs. Often strong base scores from full-backs require contributions from more offensive actions, but Ward and Palace offered little going forward. We should give an honorable mention here to Neco Williams who replaced Trent in the 74th minute and amassed a 30p payout thanks to a couple of stoppage time shots on target.

Fabinho – total payout 79p; 1 goal, 1 assist; base payout 29p

Fabinho produced a couple of moments of brilliance to help Liverpool to their victory. With Palace tiring during the first half, he took advantage of time in the middle of midfield to pick out Mohamed Salah for Liverpool’s second. Ten minutes into the second half he was again afforded too much space in midfield, and sent a low driven shot flying into the right-hand side of Wayne Hennessey’s goal. Aside from his goal contributions, he earned 10p from tackles won and 11p from passes made. A solid performance that meant Palace could never break out of their own half with any potency.

Declan Rice – total payout 61p; base payout 42p

West Ham’s visit to Tottenham was a turgid affair, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t good individual performances. Spurs’ front line was frustrated by Declan Rice and his defensive colleagues, with Rice putting on a real show. Despite West Ham conceding two goals, he managed a payout of 61p, with a base payout of 42p which came by all manner of contributions. He had 8p from tackles won, 9p from ball recoveries, 6p from CBIs and, most remarkably, 10p from dribbles. Rice has now accumulated six payouts of 60p or more in a floundering West Ham side this season; something for traders to take notice of.

Giovani Lo Celso – total payout 62p; base payout 37p

Spurs’ own deeper midfielders allowed them to keep control of the game and prevent West Ham from building any periods of sustained pressure. Giovani Lo Celso was at the heart of this, putting in his first really dominant display in a Spurs shirt. He was often positioned well, making 13p in ball recoveries and 12p in passes made. Frustratingly he is susceptible to rotation, with Harry Winks quite likely to come in and reclaim his spot in midfield next time out, but with Dele Alli struggling in this fixture, Lo Celso could see Mourinho give him responsibility further up the pitch.

Anthony Martial – total payout 86p; base payout 16p; 3 goals

It’s about time someone took the mantle from Robin van Persie. With his hat-trick on Wednesday, Anthony Martial became the first Manchester United player to score three goals in a game since the Dutch marksman, back when Sir Alex Ferguson was still in charge. He was clinical at Bramall Lane and he will need to continue in this vein, having registered a poor base payout of 16p – this effectively amounts to the three shots on target which he converted. If United’s talented midfield can continue to supply chances, and he can continue to convert, this will be enough for traders to begin to price Martial a little higher, but we prefer strong base scores at AlphaStack.

Callum Wilson – total payout 8p; base payout -14p

Even with Jack Stephens’ 7p payout, Callum Wilson is this week’s biggest loser. Having scored over 40p just twice since the turn of the year, Wilson is regularly one of the lowest-priced forwards when markets open on SportStack, but even then people cannot have prepared for the performance he turned out when Bournemouth travelled to Wolves during the week. He had a total payout of 8p and a base payout of -14p. Seriously, -14p. Where we’re usually listing a player’s contributions to a decent base score (Wilson earned 1p for passes made and 2p for a CBI, and that is it), here we are forced to reel off the negative actions. He gave away two fouls, was shown a yellow card, caught offside twice and tackled three times, as well as being on the pitch for the goal Bournemouth conceded. It probably doesn’t make much of a difference, but interestingly Wilson was already on a payout of 9p by half-time, he just didn’t do much to redeem himself in the second half.

Tammy Abraham – total payout 26p; base payout/min 0.55p

This week we have a substitute leading the line. This speaks a little to the fact that there weren’t many goals or many excellent individual performances this week, but with his 30 minutes on the pitch on Thursday evening, Tammy Abraham really left a mark. He managed a payout of 26p, on the strength of three shots on target. Two of those came in the buildup to Fernandinho’s red card, with the Brazilian blocking the second with his hand and giving away a penalty. Notably Tammy had an xG of 2.12 from his three shots, so there are arguments for him having done well and positively affected the game; others might suggest he should have been more clinical with his finishing. With Timo Werner joining he will want to start taking his chances!

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