Last month we discussed Trent Alexander-Arnold who had an incredible December. With the latest Premier League Player of the Month award going to none other than Sergio Aguero, what better time to continue our Under the Spotlight (UtS) series with a more detailed look at his performances during January.
Aguero scooped the award despite only playing two full games and making a 23-minute appearance off the bench. It is clear that the selectors valued quality over quantity, with the likes of Alisson and Jordan Henderson both playing five full matches. Aguero bagged a hat-trick against Villa, and his brace against Palace and goal from the bench against Sheffield United grabbed City four points.
Those who have read any of our “The Numbers” blog will be aware that we feel very strongly about per-minute and per-90 statistics. While these numbers are no guarantee of things to come, they give a better idea of a player’s performance than basic averages.
Aguero totalled 203 minutes in January, with a total payout of 217p (this would have been capped at 200p total; more on this later on), and a payout/min of 1.07 (although 0.99 with the capped 200p payout). Compare this to Alisson for example, who played 450 minutes, accumulating a total payout of 276p, which equates to 0.61 payout/min.
You could even compare to Ayoze Perez (those who listened to Episode 4: Midweek Review and How to Cash Out will know that Perez is a bit of a sore subject) who was arguably the closest competitor for the award. Perez played four games totalling 321 minutes, and accumulated a total payout over those games of 235p, giving him a payout/min of 0.73p.
It should come as no surprise to anyone, that this graph is dominated by the incredible surge in Aguero’s goals per-90 payout (p) during January. As we mentioned above, he scored six goals in just 203 minutes on the pitch! For context, he managed “only” 10 goals in 909 minutes between August and December. He was also registering more shots on target, showing that he hasn’t just been more clinical, but is creating more chances. More shots equals more goals, right?
What to Expect
As with Trent Alexander-Arnold last month, Aguero’s fine form has been helped by clinical finishing, he totalled an xG of 3.39 in January, nearly doubling his expected goals output!
Now any football fan who has watched Aguero for years might tell you that he’ll carry on in this sort of form, and who could blame them? He’s one of the best strikers in Premier League history.
Manchester City entertain a West Ham side next who have been struggling lately, before travelling to Leicester, who themselves haven’t been consistent in the last few weeks.
He could well replicate his January performances.
There will undoubtedly be risk to going long on Aguero in these fixtures, a current buy (long) price of 65p for the West Ham game indicates traders are expecting goals, and maybe not just the one from him in that game!
Sergio Aguero had an incredible month in January and was deserving of the PotM award despite limited playing time. Going long would have been highly profitable, but bearing in mind he significantly outperformed his xG, will he keep this up? That is for you to decide – given the high buy price he is going to command pre-game, we may instead look for opportunities to trade in-play.
* SportStack cap payouts at 100p, so although statistically, Aguero registered a 117p payout against Aston Villa, traders would’ve been paid out at 100p.
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