Following quickly on from our GW23 edition of ‘The Numbers’ blog, we look at the top performers from last week’s midweek fixtures. See below for a reminder of how we calculate the numbers we look at, aside from total payout.
Base payout – this is the payout a player has earned excluding goals, assists, goals conceded, and appearance payout
Payout/min – the players’ total payout divided by the minutes played. Here we only consider those who have played 45 minutes or more, as this statistic heavily favours goalscoring substitutes
Base payout/min – as above, we adjust the base payout by dividing by minutes played. For this metric we relax the conditions a little to anyone who played 20 minutes or more. Players putting in a very short shift can rack up a strong score once a game has opened up, but they are unlikely to be able to reproduce that over 90 minutes
Payout and Base Payout
Ayoze Pérez was, painfully for some, the top performer in the midweek fixtures – listen to this week’s pod (Apple Podcasts; Google Podcasts; Spotify) to hear just how badly it went for Dave! On this occasion it was a deserved payout, however we should remember that Ayoze will not be taking penalties as long as Jamie Vardy is on the pitch, and he is possibly going to return this weekend.
Jordan Henderson, Ricardo Pereira and Nathan Redmond all registered a goal and an assist, and weirdly each accumulated a payout of 79p. Notably, while their goal contributions were hugely valuable, none of the three made it into the Base payout top ten.
Again this week, more defensive players have scored well on base payout, but we do note a couple of exceptions. Riyad Mahrez had a very strong base payout of 46p, built upon a penalty win, three shots on target, and five dribbles. Even without the penalty win, he would have delivered a profit to those who bought before kick-off. Neal Maupay had an extraordinary game ( and not necessarily in a good way) against Bournemouth – he was one of Jay’s picks for the gameweek. He racked up eight shots on target but was unable to find the net! As such, it’s not really a surprise that Aaron Ramsdale achieved a base payout of 46p making all those saves.
The payout/min table is largely reflective of the total payout table above, although Moise Kean and Harry Winks remarkably place third and fourth on the list below. Kean had a goal and an additional two shots on target in his 71 minutes against Newcastle – a promising sign although the likely return of Richarlison this week could eat into his minutes going forward. Harry Winks had amassed a payout of 50 in just 56 minutes against Norwich. His reading of the game was on full display as he accumulated 6p in ball recoveries and 16p in CBIs, before he was forced off with an ankle injury. Surprisingly he did start and play the full 90′ in the FA Cup at the weekend, so Mourinho will likely give him the nod against Man City on Sunday.
This is where things get really interesting. Seeing Jesse Lingard at the top of this list made us first question the data, then our methodology, and then the filters we had placed on the sample. His base payout of 16p in 21 minutes meant he only just qualified for the sample (players who played 20 mins or more), but by doing so he came top. This raises the point that the 20-minute filter is somewhat arbitrary, but we want to be consistent from one week to the next, so shall not be changing it. He did come on and have three shots on target, although a closer look will tell you that the chances were of low quality; he didn’t come close to losing his Premier League goal virginity for a second time (it has surely grown back by now?!) This is a timely reminder that it is always worth looking deeper into the numbers!
Florian Lejeune and Ross Barkley also only just made the cut here due to minutes played, but both were heavily involved when they came on – Lejeune’s cameo may go down in Premier League folklore as one of the greatest of all time.
Was there anyone who stood out for you? Is there someone you’d like us to look into in more detail? Let us know!